USD/CAD on H4, 29OCT2010

Hi, though the market is closed for now, but I want to share something that caught my interest. Here is it...

Alright, this is what I have in my mind...
If the market opens, and..
1) The price goes up until the 38.2 level of Fibonacci Retracement
2) Cross above the MA


I will treat that it has uptrend and make my entry(long) at 1.0221 with a stop loss of 15pips.

another way round, if..
1) price drops further below the 50.0% of Fibonacci Retracement
2) Break through the support line
3) trend moves below the MA (already in this condition)

I will enter the market with a short at 1.0150 with a stop loss at 50.0% level.

Can anyone share what you would do if you meet this situation?